Bounded uncertainty and climate change economics.

نویسندگان

  • Christopher J Costello
  • Michael G Neubert
  • Stephen A Polasky
  • Andrew R Solow
چکیده

It has been argued recently that the combination of risk aversion and an uncertainty distribution of future temperature change with a heavy upper tail invalidates mainstream economic analyses of climate change policy. A simple model is used to explore the effect of imposing an upper bound on future temperature change. The analysis shows that imposing even a high bound reverses the earlier argument and that the optimal policy, as measured by the willingness to pay to avoid climate change, is relatively insensitive to this bound over a wide range.

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عنوان ژورنال:
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

دوره 107 18  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2010